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Tracking the Sun II – The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics in the U.S. form 1998 – 2008
by Ryan Wiser, Galen Barbose, Carla Peterman, Naim Darghouth, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, October 2009.
This report provides a comprehensive summary of installed cost trends for grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States from 1998 through 2008, updating an earlier report that contained data through 2007. The updated report is based on project-level data from more than 52,000 residential and non-residential PV systems, totaling 566 MW of capacity and representing 71% of all grid-connected PV capacity installed in the U.S. through 2008. These data were provided by 27 PV incentive programs spanning 16 states.
The report finds that average installed costs have declined over time, from $10.8/W in 1998 to $7.5/W in 2008 (in real 2008 dollars per installed watt DC). Importantly, average costs declined by approximately $0.3/W from 2007 to 2008, following several preceding years (2005-2007) when they remained essentially flat. The cost reductions from 2007 to 2008 were associated with a decline in module costs, in contrast to earlier years when cost reductions were associated primarily with a decline in non-module costs.
Costs are generally lower in states with larger PV deployment programs (though exceptions exist), and international experience suggests that greater near-term cost reductions are possible, with Germany and Japan exhibiting significantly lower average installed costs for residential PV systems than the U.S. The report finds evidence of sizable economies of scale among the PV systems in our sample, significant variation in average installed cost among states, and cost advantages for PV installed in residential new construction relative to the retrofit market. The report also describes trends in financial incentive levels over time, by customer type and among states, and the associated impact of these trends on the net installed cost of PV for residential and commercial PV system owners after receipt of incentives.
The report can be downloaded from: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/re-pubs.htmlA
PowerPoint presentation that summarizes key findings can be found at: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/emp-ppt.html
Funding support for this report was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Program, and the Clean Energy States Alliance.